No Chance

May 1, 2007

There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.
– Steve Ballmer, Microsoft

Is anyone else thinking back to that infamous Slashdot post announcing the iPod?

No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame.

– CmdrTaco

Of course I have no idea what the marketshare of the iPhone will be, but I’ll say this: the entire mobile phone industry is taking note of it…and will eventually emulate it.


No comments yet

  1. There is a major difference between the iPod and iPhone; Apple was able to create a unique all-in-one solution involving the iPod that was user-friendly, and nobody caught on to that formula until iPod became as universal as Kleenex and Tylenol. Both because Apple will be dependent on third parties to provide the phone network and other phone manufacturers (notably LG) have partnered with various networks to provide all-in-one solutions in that market, iPhone will not have the benefit that dynamic.

    The bad news for Apple is their products tend to fail when the competition offers the same solution.

  2. I see the iPhone a having one, single compelling strength: superior experience. (That is, if they deliver on what we’ve seen so far.)

    What I mean is this. All cell phones are a bitch to use because their software stinks. In fact, the only thing that phone software does well is to cripple the hardware makers goods for the benefit of the carrier; if the carrier has a way to monetize what you want to do, they’ll prevent you from doing it another way. There’s no reason, for example, why I shouldn’t be able to plug my phone into my computer, sync all my contacts, put in a few photos (or take a few out), and then toss in my favorite mp3 a a ringtone. But you’ll notice that hardly anyone who uses a phone can do those things.

    Cell phones are ubiquitous, it’s true. But so much of the experience is broken. We all just accept this. Apple looked at the brokenness and fixed it. That is going to make the unit a success.

    They appear to have had the clout to convince AT&T to do things a better way. Just like they did with the music industry.

    Or one hopes. Fingers crossed.

  3. The only thing about the iPod and iPhone (and believe me, it is the only thing) that makes people buy them is that they say “Apple” on the side.

    iPhone was far from the first device to do all the things it does. And contrary to what Steve Jobs says, not everybody wants to “own” music instead of “rent” it.

    Sansa makes music players superior to the iPod. Not only are they less expensive, less bulky, and easier to navigate, I don’t have to spend $1000 to listen to 1000 songs. My Napster subscription costs $14/month and I get to move as many songs as I want in and out of the player. I would be spending far more than that every month if I was stuck with the $1/song iPod.

    iPods and iPhones are fashion statements. Nothing more. And even iPods are on their way out in that respect. So many people now have them that the really “hip and trendy” are migrating to alternatives.

    My hat goes off to Apple; they are marketing geniuses. But when it comes to music players and wireless telecom technologies, they don’t hold a candle.

  4. […] when Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer said Apple’s new iPhone had “no chance” of getting significant marketshare? If you looked closely you could see the sweat running down his […]

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